Neural network wind speed prediction method based on time series data analysis

A neural network and wind speed prediction technology, applied in biological neural network models, predictions, neural architectures, etc., can solve problems such as power grid disturbances, large peak-to-valley differences in wind power power, and complex wind energy, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2019-06-25
NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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Problems solved by technology

However, in the process of wind power generation, wind energy is affected by natural factors in a complex manner, with very strong random fluctuations, and the output wind power energy also has strong fluctuations. In the process of utilizing wind power, two problems need to be solved , the first is the problem of wind power e

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  • Neural network wind speed prediction method based on time series data analysis
  • Neural network wind speed prediction method based on time series data analysis
  • Neural network wind speed prediction method based on time series data analysis

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Embodiment Construction

[0044] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, but the present invention is not limited in any way. Any transformation or replacement based on the teaching of the present invention belongs to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0045] Using historical meteorological data to predict future wind speed, it is necessary to analyze the factors that may affect the wind speed. Research shows that the wind speed to be predicted is at least the same as the historical wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed difference, and wind speed standard deviation It is related to the 8 factors of wind direction and standard deviation, but historical meteorological data should be viewed with a dynamic perspective. Historical data is date-based time series data. Therefore, when dealing with meteorological attribute data of 8 factors, it is necessary to analyze A certain trend, using this trend t

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Abstract

The invention discloses a neural network wind speed prediction method based on time sequence data analysis. The method comprises the steps of obtaining multiple groups of time sequence data of a windpower plant; respectively establishing regression models of the meteorological data, and recording meteorological attribute values after regression; establishing a BP neural network model, performinggrouping training on the neural network model by adopting a difference operation and firefly mixed algorithm, and performing global training; calculating a latest meteorological attribute value afterregression through the latest historical meteorological data; and inputting the latest meteorological attribute value into a neural network, and calculating a predicted wind speed value. According tothe method, regression trend data is adopted to replace fixed data of a certain day period to train the model, a BP neural network is improved by utilizing a difference algorithm and a firefly algorithm, and a method of combining grouping training and global training is adopted, so that the prediction accuracy of the method is higher than that of a traditional method.

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Application Information

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Owner NAT UNIV OF DEFENSE TECH
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