Failure mode based method for calculating failure probability of transformation device

A technology of failure mode and power transformation equipment, applied in the direction of calculation, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve the problem of failure to effectively consider the interconnection of various failure phenomena, complex causes of failure, and inability to understand equipment failure conditions And other issues

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-01-06
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV +2
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

There are various failure modes of substation equipment, and the causes of failure are complex. A simple failure mode may correspond to two or more reasons. At the same time, many reasons under different failure modes may be partially the same. Other failure modes may also occur
However, the existing diagnostic methods fail to regard the diagnostic object as an organic whole, do not effectively consider the possible interrelationships between various fault phenomena, and lack the theoretical basis and unified comprehensive method for systematic fault modes. Gain a holistic view of equipment failure conditions

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0028] Taking the transformer as an example, the specific implementation of each step is as follows:

[0029] (1) Construction of fault tree

[0030] A fault tree is a tree-like logical causal relationship diagram, which describes the causal relationship between various events in the system with specified events, logic gates and other symbols. Through the fault tree, various possible factors of system failure can be connected, which is helpful for us to discover the weak link of the system and the trend of system failure.

[0031] The fault tree analysis method first constructs an inverted tree structure that reflects the causal relationship between faults, and then obtains the weak links of the system through tree simplification and quantitative analysis. The key is to construct the fault tree, and the perfection of fault tree construction will directly affect the accuracy of its qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. In fact, the process of building a tree is o...

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Abstract

The present invention belongs to the field of on-line monitoring and fault diagnosis of a transformation device in a power system, and relates to a new failure mode based method for calculating a failure probability of the transformation device. The method in particular comprises: according to an established device fault tree, calculating an occurrence probability Pi(i=1,2...n) of various failure modes, severity Ii(i=1,2...n) of various failure modes, and criticality of various failure modes Wi(i=1,2...n) on the device. According to the present invention, when the various failure modes are mutually independent, a device failure rate lambda caused by the various failure modes can be computed according to a series model of a failure reliability theory, i.e., (reference to the specification), wherein computing of the defect occurrence probability Pi of various failure modes of transformation device is based on a defect probability computing method of an online monitoring data statistic probability distribution regulation; computing of the severity Ii(i=1,2...n) of defect corresponds to various failure modes is obtained according to the development process of a device defect, and developmental and changing rules of a characteristic parameter; and the criticality of various failure modes Wi is obtained by using a fuzzy hierarchical analysis method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of on-line monitoring and fault diagnosis of substation equipment (substation equipment including transformers, GIS equipment, circuit breakers, mutual inductors and lightning arresters) in power systems, and relates to a new calculation method of failure probability based on equipment failure modes. technical background [0002] In recent years, the increasing demand for electric energy has made the power system develop towards large capacity, ultra-high voltage and cross-region. However, the development speed of the power system cannot always fully meet the growth of demand, so the overload operation of the power grid occurs from time to time. The overload operation will seriously shorten the service life of power equipment, which will lead to large-scale power outages. It can be seen that how to ensure the safe operation of electrical equipment, timely discover hidden dangers, effectively reduce power system accid...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 程养春蔡巍赵子健龙凯华李志刚
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV
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